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Adelaide skyline
REJECT
AustraliaMay 23, 2026

Adelaide

Investment Analysis Report

95% confidenceVERY HIGH risk

Under500K.ai rates Adelaide, Australia as REJECT with 95% confidence. The market offers 4.5% gross rental yield with very high risk for foreign investors seeking properties under $500K.

Investment Scorecard

B+
Optimal Exit
7 yrs
A
Market Phase
EXPANSION
A
Vacancy Rate
0.6%
A
12-Mo Price Forecast
+6.5%
A
U5K Livability
82/100
B+
Sentiment Score
58/100

City Profile

Adelaide offers a relaxed, high-quality lifestyle with strong infrastructure, excellent food/wine scene, and growing tech/innovation economy suitable for foreign property investors under $500k focusing on residential rentals. Stable governance with moderate investor policies; demand supported by students, festivals, and year-round appeal despite some foreign buyer costs. Key upside from ongoing airport and transit projects.

Mediterranean climate with mild wet winters, warm to hot dry summers, and around 300 sunny days per year

Infrastructure:
Power
8/10

Generally reliable grid with SA Power Networks investing ~$10M in reliability improvements; occasional outages reported but not frequent major events

Water
9/10

High quality, safe to drink from tap (standard in Australia)

Internet
8/10

100 Mbps • 70% fiber

Transit
7/10

Extensive bus and train network, ongoing rail extensions and improvements; no full metro system

Labor & Economy:
Maintenance

MODERATE

Handyman Rate

$35/hr

Construction vs US

80%

Coworking

Available

Stable with focus on innovation, defence and space sectors; good for remote investors but foreign buyer surcharges apply

Lifestyle:
Nightlife

MODERATE

Expat Community

MEDIUM

English

HIGH

BeachesWineriesParksFestivalsHiking

Excellent foodie destination with Central Market, 900+ restaurants/cafes, diverse international cuisine, strong wine scene

Tenant Seasonality:
Peak Months

Feb, Mar, Oct, Nov, Dec

Low Months

Jun, Jul, Aug

Seasonal Variance

20%

Year-Round Demand

Yes

StudentsDigital nomadsFestival touristsBusiness travelers
Governance:
Stability

STABLE

Investor Friendliness

MODERATE

Corruption Index

77/100

Investor Policies:
  • No specific golden visa for real estate
  • Foreign investor fees/surcharges on purchases and vacancies
Recent Changes:
  • Rental reforms 2025-2026 including standardized application forms
  • Increased fees on vacant properties for foreign investors
Development Pipeline:
ProjectTypeCompletionImpact
Adelaide Airport ExpansionAIRPORT2028POSITIVE
Ten Gigabit Adelaide Fiber NetworkOTHER2027POSITIVE
Rail Network ExtensionsTRANSIT2028POSITIVE

Livability Index

81.8/100
A-u5k Livability Index

Adelaide scores strongly as an A- investment market with excellent healthcare, safety, and economic drivers supporting rental demand, though the USD 500k cap restricts foreign buyers to higher-yield affordable segments amid ongoing expansion.

85
safetyHomicide rate: 0.9/100K (very low). Road safety: 4.5 deaths/100K (excellent). Cybersecurity: 98/100 (excellent). Street safety sentiment: 85/100 (safe feeling).
80
climateMild Mediterranean climate; highly liveable with appeal for migration and seasonal stability
88
healthcareWHO Universal Health Coverage index: 89. Strong healthcare system.
75
investment5-5.5% gross yields in target segments; strong 10-12% recent price growth and 6.5% 12-mo forecast, but limited inventory under budget
80
cost of livingSignificantly below major US cities (e.g., ~27% cheaper than New York excl. rent); supports strong rental cash flow margins
78
infrastructureOngoing transit upgrades (rail electrification/extensions), solid broadband; supports remote workers and connectivity
82
economic vitalityUnemployment ~4.2-4.5%, robust migration + infrastructure-driven growth; strong housing demand
Best For:
  • Cash flow investors seeking 5%+ gross yields
  • Long-term appreciation with migration tailwinds
Watch Out:
  • FIRB approval process and foreign buyer surcharges
  • Limited options below median (~AUD 945k dwellings) pushing to secondary/outer segments
  • Construction pipeline gradually easing supply from 2027

Sentiment Analysis

  • Sentiment score: 58/100
  • Rating: NEUTRAL
  • Cautious outlook; strong local market but significant regulatory hurdles for foreign buyers under budget limit options t
58/100
NEUTRAL42 posts analyzed
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Healthcare

International Schools

Adelaide provides good international schooling options (primarily English with IB/Cambridge pathways) that align well with expat family needs. Schools are accessible from investment-friendly neighborhoods under the USD 500k budget, making the city suitable for families prioritizing quality education alongside property investment.

GoodScore: 75/100
Top International Schools:
#1 Pembroke SchoolReception-Year 12 (approx. ages 4-18)
IB
~$25,000/year
pembroke.sa.edu.au
#2 Glenunga International High SchoolYears 7-12 (approx. ages 12-18)
IB
~$10,000/year
gihs.sa.edu.au
#3 Concordia CollegeReception-Year 12 (approx. ages 4-18)
IB
~$22,000/year
concordia.sa.edu.au

Executive Summary

Investment Verdict

REJECT. Confidence 95%. The single most important reason is the federal ban on foreign purchases of established dwellings (effective April 2025 through at least March 2027, possibly extended to 2029), restricting non-residents exclusively to new/near-new stock requiring prior FIRB/ATO approval—combined with 7% foreign stamp duty surcharge, non-resident tax rates from the first dollar, and liquidity constraints that render the USD 500k budget unworkable.

City Overview

Adelaide offers reliable infrastructure (power score 8/10, water 9/10, internet 8/10 with 70% fiber and 100 Mbps average, public transit 7/10 with ongoing rail upgrades), a mild Mediterranean climate with ~300 sunny days, and strong lifestyle appeal including beaches, wineries, parks, festivals, hiking, an excellent food scene (Central Market + 900+ restaurants), moderate nightlife, medium expat community, high English proficiency, stable business environment focused on innovation/defence/space, and solid digital nomad infrastructure. Owning property here provides a relaxed, high-quality lifestyle with year-round livability (A- overall score) in a safe, affordable city relative to Sydney/Melbourne.

Tenant Demand & Seasonality

Primary renters include students, digital nomads, festival tourists, and business travelers, with year-round demand supported by very low 0.6% vacancy. Peak months are Feb-Mar and Oct-Dec; low season Jun-Aug with ~20% seasonal variance. Northern suburbs and CBD units see consistent rental appeal from affordability, employment hubs, and migration, making steady occupancy realistic outside extreme stress scenarios.

Governance & Investor Climate

High political stability with moderate investor friendliness; no golden visa for real estate. Recent changes include 2025-2026 rental reforms and increased vacant-property fees for foreigners. Corruption perception is strong (score 77). Foreign investors face significant hurdles: mandatory FIRB approval for new dwellings only, 7% SA stamp duty surcharge, and non-resident taxation without CGT discounts.

Development Pipeline

Positive impacts from Adelaide Airport Expansion (2028, western suburbs/CBD), Ten Gigabit Adelaide Fiber Network (2027, CBD/innovation areas), and Rail Network Extensions (2028, inner suburbs/regional links). These support long-term values in northern growth corridors (Playford, Noarlunga) and urban renewal sites, though supply easing from 2027 may moderate price growth.

Key Risks

  • Extreme regulatory risk from the established-dwelling purchase ban, FIRB restrictions, 7% surcharge, and punitive non-resident tax regime (32.5%+ on income, 15% CGT withholding).
  • High financial risk due to limited non-resident financing (max 70% LTV at ~7%), negative leverage potential, and AUD/USD FX volatility (8.5%).
  • High liquidity risk from restricted foreign buyer pool and potential 10-15% forced-sale discounts.
  • Medium market and currency risks from rising rates/inflation and supply pipeline.

Action Items

  1. Confirm current FIRB eligibility and new-build availability under AUD 700k with a specialist buyer's agent (e.g., Property Buyer or Nich Real Estate) before any further steps.
  2. Engage a FIRB-experienced Adelaide conveyancer/solicitor for POA/remote settlement guidance and full tax modeling.
  3. Obtain mortgage pre-approval via brokers (HSBC, NAB) or developer financing to assess realistic LTV/terms.
  4. Review specific new-dwelling listings in Munno Para/Salisbury or Mawson Lakes with property managers for yield verification.
  5. Consult an Australian tax advisor on non-resident implications and monitor for 2026 STR or foreign investment regulatory updates.

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Market Analysis

  • Market phase: EXPANSION
  • Adelaide's market remains in expansion with low 0.
  • Vacancy rate: 0.6%

Adelaide's market remains in expansion with low 0.6% vacancy, strong 10-12% recent growth, and forecasts of ~6%+ for next 12 months, driven by migration and undersupply. Under USD 500k (~AUD 700k), foreign investors (requiring FIRB approval) can target units or outer-suburb houses with solid 5%+ gross yields, though medians (~AUD 945k dwellings) limit options to secondary/affordable segments.

Market Phase: EXPANSION
Vacancy: 0.6%
12-Mo Forecast: +6.5%
Demand Drivers:
Interstate and international migrationRelative affordability vs Sydney/MelbourneStrong employment and population growthInfrastructure upgrades
Top Neighborhoods:
Northern suburbs (e.g., Playford area)$4500/m² · 5.2% yield
Outer south (e.g., Noarlunga)$4200/m² · 5% yield
Adelaide CBD/units$6500/m² · 5.5% yield
5-Year Price Trend:
2022
+15%
2023
+8%
2024
+12%
2025
+10%
2026
+12%
Supply: Government deal unlocking ~17,000 new homes (2026+), including northern Adelaide estates (e.g., Playford, Noarlunga ~2k+ units) and urban renewal sites (Thebarton 1k homes); national construction at 10-year low but SA pipeline easing undersupply gradually from 2027.

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Neighbourhood Scorecards

Munno Para / Salisbury (Northern High-Yield)

Tier 1
$400K

Premium

Mawson Lakes / Woodville (Balanced)

Tier 2
$500K

Premium

Norwood / Unley (Premium Inner-East)

Tier 3
$550K

Premium

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Comparable Properties

Adelaide offers attractive entry points under USD 500k (~AUD 700k) primarily in northern high-yield suburbs (Munno Para, Salisbury) and select units in balanced areas. City-wide gross yields average ~3.5-4.5% with very low vacancy (0.8%). Northern suburbs deliver the best cash flow (5%+ yields). Foreign investors face FIRB approval requirements and potential stamp duty surcharges; focus on new builds or units where possible. Strong recent growth (8-15% YoY) expected to moderate but continue in 2026. Data synthesized from 2025-2026 market reports (CoreLogic, Domain, REA, Valuer-General).

Avg Price:$3,200/m²

5 comparable properties available

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Financial Analysis

  • Gross yield: 4.5%
  • Cap rate: 3.7%
  • Break-even: 4.8 years

Adelaide offers limited but viable options under USD 500k for foreign investors, concentrated in northern high-yield suburbs (5%+ gross yields on houses) and select balanced-area units. Strong market expansion (10-12% recent growth, 6.5% forecast) and very low vacancy support capital growth, but foreign buyers must target new/near-new stock only with FIRB approval. Aggregated metrics from 5 representative listings show median entry ~USD 420k with 4.5% gross yields; leveraged returns attractive at ~10.5% IRR assuming 70% LTV financing at 7%. Expect higher cashflow in outer north vs inner areas; factor in 32.5%+ non-resident taxes and 7% stamp surcharge. Data synthesized and aggregated per guidelines; verify current FIRB eligibility and new-build availability.

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Financing Options

  • Mortgage: Available
  • Max LTV: 70%
  • Rate: 7%

Financing for foreign (non-resident) investors in Adelaide is limited and more challenging than for residents. FIRB rules heavily restrict established dwellings (ban extended to mid-2029), directing buyers to new developments only. Expect max ~70% LTV, 30%+ down payment, and rates of 6.5-8% (lower with >45% equity). Major banks largely exited; use specialized brokers. Pre-approval essential; all terms conservative estimates as of 2024-2025 data—verify current rates and FIRB approval. Budget USD 500k allows ~AUD 350k loan max at 70% LTV, suitable for smaller Adelaide properties but watch trapped equity and currency mismatch.

Mortgage

Available

Max LTV

70%

Rate

7%

Down Payment

30%

Recommended Banks:
  • HSBC Australia - Offers international mortgages for non-residents and expats; competitive for foreign buyers
  • NAB - One of the few remaining major banks accepting foreign investor applications, though restrictive post-2016 policy shifts by others
  • Bendigo & Adelaide Bank - Local presence in Adelaide; may assist via brokers for select foreign clients
Alternative Financing:
  • Broker services via Home Loan Experts or Map Home Loans (access to 30+ lenders)
  • Developer financing for new/off-plan properties (often more flexible for foreigners)
  • Private/second-tier lenders for higher LTV in exceptional cases

Bank Account Setup: Non-residents can often open accounts remotely/online with major banks (e.g., CommBank, HSBC) using passport, 100-point ID check, tax info, and planned arrival details. Full activation typically requires in-person branch verification in Australia. No local tax ID or residency strictly required for basic accounts, but visa details help.

Currency: Loans typically in AUD; significant FX risk if income/rentals in USD. Multi-currency accounts available at HSBC/others. Monitor AUD/USD volatility for transfers and repayments. Negative leverage risk high given yields vs. 6.5-8%+ borrowing costs.

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Risk Assessment

  • Overall risk: VERY_HIGH
  • Key risks: REGULATORY, FINANCIAL, MARKET

Adelaide offers fundamentally sound cash-flow positive opportunities (median ~USD 420k entry, 4.5% gross yield, positive monthly CF ~USD 650) with strong livability and demand drivers, but foreign investor restrictions elevate overall risk to VERY HIGH. Key threats are regulatory (ban + surcharges/taxation), financing availability, and exit liquidity. Stress tests confirm material downside in severe conditions. Strongly advise confirming current FIRB eligibility and new-build availability with Australian professionals before any commitment.

Overall Risk:VERY HIGH
EXTREMEREGULATORY

Federal ban on foreign purchases of established dwellings (effective Apr 2025–at least Mar 2027, possibly extended to 2029) restricts buyers exclusively to new/near-new stock requiring prior FIRB/ATO approval. Additional 7% SA foreign stamp duty surcharge, non-resident tax rates (32.5%+ on rental income from first dollar), no 50% CGT discount, and 15% foreign resident CGT withholding apply. Corporate structures add compliance and potential land tax surcharges.

Mitigation: Target only FIRB-approved new-build opportunities; engage specialist Australian conveyancer/solicitor early for POA/remote execution; obtain pre-approval and model full tax impact with advisor. Personal ownership preferred for simplicity.

HIGHFINANCIAL

Limited non-resident financing (max 70% LTV, ~7% rates at banks like HSBC/NAB/Bendigo via brokers); high interest-rate sensitivity; negative leverage risk given 4.5% gross yields vs. borrowing costs; AUD/USD FX volatility (8.5%) on repayments/rentals; trapped equity possible under budget constraints.

Mitigation: Secure pre-approval; use developer financing where available; maintain multi-currency accounts (HSBC); stress-test at +2–3% rates; budget 30%+ equity buffer.

MEDIUMMARKET

Adelaide resilient with low vacancy (~0.6%), strong migration/infrastructure demand, and 6.5–12% price growth forecasts, but elevated RBA rates (4.35%), persistent inflation (4.6%), and gradual supply pipeline from 2027 could moderate growth. Limited inventory under AUD ~700k for new stock narrows options to higher-yield northern suburbs.

Mitigation: Focus on cash-flow positive northern high-yield segments (5%+ gross); diversify via balanced suburbs; monitor CoreLogic/Domain reports for absorption vs. new supply.

HIGHLIQUIDITY

Foreign buyer pool severely restricted (new dwellings only); smaller transaction volumes and potentially longer days-on-market for non-resident sellers; forced-sale discounts estimated 10–15% in downturns.

Mitigation: Plan 7+ year hold; target desirable new-build locations with broad appeal; factor exit taxes (32.5–45%) and 15% withholding into net proceeds.

MEDIUMCURRENCY

AUD stable but 8.5% volatility vs. USD creates mismatch risk for USD-based investors on loan servicing, rental income, and capital repatriation.

Mitigation: Use multi-currency hedging where feasible; model scenarios at ±10–15% AUD moves; prefer longer-term holds to smooth FX effects.

Stress Test: SEVERE STRESS (Rent -20%, Rates +3% to 10%, Vacancy to 20%, Appreciation -10%)

Monthly cash flow turns negative (~USD -200 to -400 after higher interest and vacancy); leveraged IRR falls to negative/low single digits or loss; equity erosion of 20–35% on entry price; recovery timeline 5–8 years assuming gradual rebound in migration and rates easing. Mild/Moderate scenarios remain cash-flow positive but with compressed yields and slower appreciation.

Recovery: ~6 years

Recommendation: PASS - Regulatory barriers (purchase ban + tax regime) combined with financing constraints and liquidity restrictions create unacceptable downside for foreign non-residents under the USD 500k budget. Viable only for highly risk-tolerant investors with local partners who can secure FIRB-approved new stock and absorb potential 30%+ capital loss in stress scenarios. Domestic or resident investors face materially lower risk.

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Local Insights

Adelaide offers expansion-phase opportunities with strong yields in northern/outer suburbs and CBD units for foreign investors limited to new dwellings under ~AUD 700k. Low vacancy supports rentals, but strict FIRB rules and surcharges apply. Recommended network prioritizes expat-focused buyer's agents, established PM firms with remote capabilities, and conveyancers experienced in foreign transactions. Remote purchase is highly feasible (score 8/10). Consult professionals immediately to confirm eligibility and opportunities in Playford/Noarlunga areas.

Property Buyer (Buyer's Agent Adelaide)

Foreign buyers, expats, new dwellings/off-the-plan, Adelaide suburbs

Specializes in overseas and expat investors with dedicated Adelaide service; helps navigate FIRB and new-build restrictions under budget

propertybuyer.com.au

Nich Real Estate

Foreign buyers (esp. Vietnamese/Asian), new dwellings, Adelaide northern/outer suburbs

Bilingual team with proven track record assisting dozens of foreign buyers in Adelaide; focuses on off-the-plan and affordable new properties suitable for <AUD 700k

nich.com.au

Ready Set Buy (Buyer's Agents Adelaide)

Expat and overseas buyers, remote purchases across SA

Tailored service for international clients; handles remote negotiations and FIRB processes for new dwellings

readysetbuy.com.au

List your company here

Reach foreign investors actively researching this market

[email protected]
Engagement Tips:

Always verify current FIRB eligibility for new/near-new dwellings only (established homes banned until at least March 2027). Use a buyer's agent experienced with foreign clients for off-market/new-build opportunities under AUD 700k. Engage a local conveyancer early for POA (notarized/apostilled) and FIRB application. Property managers with investor portals are essential for remote oversight. Confirm all professionals handle non-resident clients and request references from recent foreign investors. Budget extra for 7% foreign stamp duty surcharge + standard SA duties.

Local Real Estate Listing Websites:
🔗
realestate.com.au

Primary Australian property portal

🔗
Domain.com.au

Major listings and market data site

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Renovation Costs

Renovation cost estimates for Adelaide investment properties under USD 500k (primarily northern suburbs like Munno Para/Salisbury). Adjusted for ~0.92 COL vs US avg. Light cosmetic: refresh surfaces/finishes. Moderate: kitchens/baths + updates. Full: structural + high-end. All include 15%+ contingency. Low confidence due to limited Adelaide-specific 2026 data.

Light Cosmetic
$12K – $25K
medium
Moderate Update
$28K – $55K
medium
Full Renovation
$65K – $140K
low
Cost Index vs US:92%(numbeo.com, 2026-05)
Cost Breakdown:
Category% of TotalNotes
Labor45%ESTIMATED based on COL index and AU construction data
Materials35%ESTIMATED based on regional price index; AU mid-range finishes
Permits5%ESTIMATED; SA building approvals and council fees
Contingency15%Standard 15-25% buffer included
Sparse local data — estimates extrapolated from national Australian averages and Numbeo COL index; Adelaide-specific renovation quotes limited. Focus on northern suburbs properties (e.g., 100-120 sqm houses) typical for <$500k USD entry.

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Short-Term Rental Policy

STR legal with no state-wide license or day cap. Minimal barriers but local council planning/zoning checks required; some rating surcharges apply for >90 days use. Ongoing state inquiries may lead to future registration.

REGULATEDScore: 7/10
Regulatory Checklist:
STR Legal?
License Required?No
Day CapNone
Owner Occupancy Required?No
ZoningCheck local council planning schemes; some inner-suburb residential zones may require development approval for STR
Platform Collects Tax?Yes (null%)
Foreign Investor Notes: Foreign persons require FIRB/ATO approval prior to purchasing any residential property. Non-residents generally prohibited from buying established dwellings (limited to new builds/vacant land with conditions). No additional STR-specific restrictions identified beyond general foreign investment rules.
Penalties:
  • First offense: Varies by council; potential fines or re-rating for non-compliance with local rules
  • Repeat: Potential enforcement actions or permit revocation if local laws implemented
Pending Legislation: WARNING: State parliamentary inquiry (2025) and AHURI report (May 2026) recommend registration schemes, levies, and restrictions on conversions; some Adelaide metro councils proposing permit systems (e.g., potential 2026 commencement). Monitor for changes.

Most recent: City of Adelaide rates policy and multiple 2026 analyses (e.g., Rakidzich Mar 2026, AirROI May 2026)

Oldest source: Airbnb submission May 2025; City of Adelaide budget changes effective 2024/25

Confidence: high

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Exit Strategy

  • Optimal hold: 7 years
  • Strategy: Medium Hold
  • Liquidity: GOOD

Recommend 7-year medium hold for Adelaide foreign investor under $500k targeting new/near-new properties in northern high-yield suburbs. Strong 6-8%+ annual appreciation forecasts and tight liquidity (32-day median DOM) support capital growth, but non-resident tax drag (32.5%+ rates + 15% withholding) favors timing exit during peak cycle before potential supply normalization. Leverage 70% LTV financing for ~10.5% IRR while monitoring FIRB compliance.

Optimal Hold

7 years

Exit Costs

8%

Liquidity

GOOD

Avg Days on Market

32

Exit Scenarios:
StrategyTimelineRiskNet ReturnAppreciation
Quick Flip3 yrsHIGH12%22%
Medium Hold5 yrsMEDIUM20%35%
Optimal Balanced7 yrsMEDIUM28%50%
Long-term Hold10 yrsLOW42%75%
Exit Signals to Watch:
  • Supply increases pushing days on market above 45
  • Interest rates rising above 6%
  • Price growth moderating below 5% annually
Recommended Strategy: MEDIUM HOLD

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Returns

Gross Yield
4.5%
Net Yield
3.4%
Cap Rate
3.7%
Cash-on-Cash
5.8%
IRR (Cash)
7.8%
IRR (Leveraged)
10.5%

Cash Flow

Entry Price
$420K
Monthly CF
$650
Break-even
4.8 yrs
Optimal Exit
7 yrs

Risk & Feasibility

Risk Level
VERY HIGH
Max Loss
35.0%
Sentiment
58/100
Remote Score
8/10
Market Cycle
EXPANSION

Financing

Mortgage
Available
Max LTV
70.0%
Rate
7.0%

Tax & Legal

Foreign Buyer
Allowed
Purchase Tax
12.0%
Income Tax
32.5%
Exit Tax
45.0%
Exit (Optimized)
32.5%

Macro

GDP Growth
2.0%
Central Bank Rate
4.3%
Inflation
4.6%
Currency vs USD
0.7100
12mo Forecast
6.5%

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